St. Martin Parish Market Update

All of the metrics in the year over year data are moving in a favorable direction.
Year to date data is indicating more of an unfavorable change than the year over year data.
Although difficult to see, the red trend line is moving in a favorable direction.
The red trend line for the median sales price is moving in a favorable direction.
Year to date is showing a 7.6% decrease in the number of sales for St. Martin Parish.
Year to date (Ending on June 30th) sales volume is down for St. Martin Parish
The month of June had a 30% increase in the number of sales for 2020 compared to 2019
The month of June shows a significant increase from the month of May in 2020.
I hope that this was helpful. Let me know what you think.

Thank you for checking out my St. Martin Parish Market Update. If you have any questions please do not hesitate to contact me.

If you are interested in how the Lafayette Parish or Iberia Parish market is doing, check out my previous market updates.

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Iberia Parish Market Analysis

Year over year data indicates that the values have declined approximately 3.0% for Iberia Parish
Year to date shows most of the metrics are changing in a favorable direction.
Year to date (Ending June 30th) the total number sales have declined in Iberia Parish
Year to Date (Ending June 30th) the total sales volue
The number of sales in Iberia Parish are down slightly since June 2019
Sales Volume for Iberia Parish is down from June 2019.

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Real Estate Trends

The Lafayette Parish Housing Market

Summary:

It would seem likely that a global pandemic and a decline in the oil and gas industry would cause our real estate market to slow down dramatically.  On the contrary, interest rates are now so low that they are offsetting the hesitation that one would assume market participants might have. Real estate trends continue to experience favorable changes.

For the month of May, there was a big dip in the number of closed sales as compared to what occurred in May 2019.  The market seemed to expect the number of closed sales to be low since we had a stay at home order enforced throughout the month of April.  But as predicted based on the number of pending listings in April, there has been a huge increase in the number of sold properties in June 2020.  In fact, there was a 41% increase in the number of sales from May to June alone.  Additionally, there was a 31% year over year increase in the number of closed sales for the month of June.

In the market area, favorable trends are being observed in both the median and average sales prices for year-over-year data and year-to-date data.  However, the change is not enough to indicate values are increasing; therefore, our market is still considered stable.

The number of new listings and pending sales has passed the initial surge from the stay at home order ending.  While there is a little more fluctuation with the number of new listings on a monthly basis, the trend line over the past six weeks is more stable than it was the previous month or two before that.  Also, pending listings have decreased some from their peak six weeks ago, but the number of new pendings on a weekly basis is still higher than pre-pandemic numbers. 

I hope this information is helpful for you in the market area.  Let me know what you think!

The peak in new pending listings occurred six weeks ago
While the median and average sales prices are considered stable, the change is still favorable
2020 has more sales (year to date) than the prior three years
The sales volume for 2020 is higher than the prior three years
June 2020 saw a huge increase in the number of sales from May 2020

Real estate trends continue to move in a favorable direction. The question is, how long will this last? With business continuing to operate below full capacity, will there continue to be buyers in the market area? So far the low-interest rates have been enough to keep the real estate market strong. We will continue to watch the real estate trends closely going forward and let you know of any changes we see.

I hope that you found some value in this presentation. Let me know what you think!

Lafayette Parish Market Update!

Takeaways:

•The market is rebounding after the initial slow down

•The number of new pending sales is similar to pre-pandemic numbers

•New closed sales are still down, but this should change in the weeks to come

•The median sales price is improving year over year

•Year to date, we have more sales than this time last year

LAFAYETTE PARISH MARKET ANALYSIS UPDATE

LAFAYETTE PARISH MARKET ANALYSIS UPDATE

February 6, 2020:

An updated look at the Lafayette Parish Market indicates the market is still stable; however, slight changes are being observed.

Was January a busy month for you?  Based on the number of properties sold, it most likely was for Realtors and Lenders in the Lafayette Parish Market.  Sales in Lafayette Parish for the month of January are up BIG TIME from last year.  In fact, there were more sales in January 2020 than there have been in the month of January for the last 10 years. 

Last month, I took an in-depth look at the overall market trends for Lafayette Parish.  The overall market was considered stable; however, there were some favorable statistics.  This month continues the favorable trend.

  • The number of sales in January 2020 increased by 73% in comparison to January 2019.
  • The sales volume was 91% higher this January as compared to January 2019.
  • Year over year trends continues to see favorable changes.

If you’re interested in some of the details and data, take a look below.

Monthly Data for January:

The chart below shows how the market was performing for January 2019 vs. January 2020.  In this chart, the median sales price, average sales price, and average price per square foot all have favorable statistics.  The median and average sold price is actually indicating that sales prices increased by a significant amount this January as compared to last January.  Average prices can be affected by outliers such as a couple of $1 million+ properties, so the median sales price is often a better indicator. 

Monthly Data (January)

Year to Date Sales Volume (Jan 1 – Feb 6):

In the chart below, you can see 2020 has a much higher sales volume than in previous years.  In fact, sales volume is up 91% from last year.  For both 2019 and 2018, there was a decrease in sales volume from the previous year.  Interest rates could have something to do with this.  For November 2018, the 30-year interest rate was (4.94%) the highest that they had been since February 2011 (5.05%). Since then, there has been a steady decline in interest rates. In January 2020, interest rates were mostly between 3.50% and 3.75%.  This is making homes more affordable for consumers. 

Sales Volume (year to date)

The chart below shows the number of sales in the area. Again, in January 2020, there were more sales than in the previous 10 years for the month of January.  There was a 73% increase in the number of sales for 2020 as compared to 2019.  Again, this is a favorable indicator for the market area.

Number of Sales (year to date)

Trending 12 Months Sales Volume (Ending on 1/31/2020):

In last month’s market update, the trending 12 months statistics were all favorable.  The trend continues this month.  In fact, the median sales price, average sales price, and the average price per square foot are all up from last month’s analysis.  Although the analysis is indicating values are stable, the statistics continue to move in a favorable direction.  This is good for sellers who are trying to sell their homes because it is taking less time to sell their homes and the sales prices are increasing.

Rolling 12 month Trend

Conclusion:

So far it has been a strong start in the real estate market for 2020.  The trend is expected to continue in the near future.  At the end of January 2020, there were 307 pending properties in Lafayette Parish.  This is a 16.7% increase from January 2019 that had 263 pending properties.  With interest rates at a three year low, it is reasonable to expect this trend to continue for the first quarter of 2020.

If you have any appraisal related questions, please do not hesitate to contact me. 337-254-2215 or Lduple4@gmail.com

I hope everyone enjoys the Mardi Gras festivities over the next few weeks.  Until next month, laissez les bons temps rouler!!!

Data Source:  MLS, detached single-family homes sold in Lafayette Parish

Daily, Weekly, and Yearly Trends for Lafayette Parish

TAKEAWAYS:

•The market is rebounding after the initial slow down from Covid19

•The number of new pending sales continue to rise on a weekly basis.  They are now higher than pre-pandemic numbers

•New closed sales are still down (especially for the month of May compared to years past), but this should change in the weeks to come

•Sales (Count and Volume) for the year are in line with the prior two years

•The median sales price is improving year over year and year to date

•The median sales price for May 2020 vs. May 2019 is stable

*Only includes detached single-family homes

Daily Trends in Lafayette Parish

Published 3/30/2020

  • New and pending listings are starting to decline
  • The number of canceled listings has increased slightly
  • The number of closed sales is stable; however, this is expected since it typically takes 30-45 days for a property to close after it has gone under contract

Covid-19 has caused a lot of disruptions in the Acadiana market area.  Lots of individuals have lost their jobs due to businesses having to temporarily shut their doors.  Other individuals who have not lost their job are being told to work from home.  Interest rates have been jumping up and down over the last couple of weeks, and the price of oil had dropped to its lowest price in two decades.  There is lots of uncertainty in the air.  With all of this going on, how has the real estate market been affected over the past 4-8 weeks? Let’s take a look at the daily trends over the last two months in Lafayette Parish.

With people losing their jobs, oil prices decreasing, interest rates fluctuating, and a global pandemic, what has been the effect on the single-family housing market area in Lafayette Parish?   Let’s look at the daily trends in Lafayette Parish in several charts that track new listings, closed sales, pending listings, withdrawn listings, and canceled listings over the last two months.  Two dates are highlighted in each chart, March 12th and March 23rd.  The date of 03/12/2020 is the day that most major sports put their seasons on hold.  In my opinion, this is the day where coverage of the coronavirus really took off. The next date, 03/23/2020, is the day that Governor Edwards announced that the state of Louisiana would have a stay in place order effective the next day at 5:00 pm.  The charts show the daily figures for the metrics below.

Daily New Listings:

The first chart shows the number of new listings on a daily basis for the last two months.

The chart is showing that there has been a slowdown in new listings.  The peak for new listings in the last two months was on 2/26/2020; however, there has been a downward trend since then.  In fact, over the past seven days, there have been only 49 new listings. This is a 36% decrease from the prior week of 76 new listings and a 47% decrease from the week before that of 92 new listings.  There is an obvious decline in new listings over the past week which is when the governor’s order was announced.

Daily Pending Listings:

The chart below shows the number of new pending listings on a daily basis for the last two months.

This chart shows an obvious decline in the number of pending listings as well.  In the weeks prior to the day when most of the major sporting events got suspended, there were several spikes in pending listings.  We have not seen spikes like those since the media coverage has increased for Covid-19.

Daily Withdrawn Listings:

The chart below shows the number of withdrawn listings on a daily basis for the last two months.

This metric has been relatively stable over this time period.  On 03/09/2020, there was a spike; however, this only amounted to three withdrawn listings in one day. 

Daily Canceled Listings:

The chart below shows the number of canceled listings on a daily basis for the last two months.

This chart shows a slight increase in canceled listings over this time period.  It is not a significant increase in canceled listings, but it is something that we need to keep an eye on.

Daily Closed Sales:

The chart below shows the number of closed sales on a daily basis for the last two months.

The chart is showing that there has not been much of a change in the number of closed sales over this time period, which is expected.  It takes approximately 30-45 days for a sale to close after it goes under contract.  So while we started to see an impact on the number of new listings, new pending listings, and canceled listings approximately 30 days ago, we probably won’t see a change in the number of closed sales for another week or two. 

Another metric that will be worth keeping an eye on in the future is the sales to list price ratio.  With fewer potential buyers out there due to people losing their jobs, oil prices dropping, and the uncertainty with the coronavirus, we need to watch to see how much properties are selling for versus what they were listed for.  This could be an indicator of a declining market if the ratio starts to decrease.

Conclusion:

I will continue to watch the daily trends in Lafayette Parish as time goes on.  With all that is happening, it would not be a big surprise to see things slow down even more.  It is still very early on, so it is important to keep a close watch to see which way the market is moving.  As time goes on and more data comes in, I will start observing the market on a weekly basis.  Most professionals in the Lafayette market area would have told you that the market was HOT 30 days ago.  Now, things have slowed down due to a number of different reasons.  I’m interested to hear what you have to say.  What are your thoughts on the Lafayette real estate market?  Realtors and Mortgage Lenders, have you seen a slowdown?  Buyers and sellers, are you more hesitant to take action right now? 

If you have any questions, please reach out to me at Lduple4@gmail.com

*A daily hot sheet was run in the Realtors Association of Acadiana Multiple Listings Search.  The daily hot sheet tracked the number of new listings, new pending listings, new withdrawn listings, new canceled listings, and closed sales on a daily basis from 01/27/2020 to 03/29/2020.

EXTERNAL INFLUENCES IN AN APPRAISAL

A positive external influence in Lafayette Parish is having a property with water frontage.
A positive external influence in Lafayette Parish is having a property with water frontage.

Typically when homeowners talk about the characteristics that affect the value of their home, they are referring to the physical features of the home. Such features include counters, cabinets, flooring, total living area, etc.  While all of these items do affect the value of a home, there are also external influences that can affect value.

POSITIVE INFLUENCES

There can be positive external influences as well as negative external influences, and both types can affect the value of a property.  Favorable external influences can include a view of the mountains, river, ocean, bay, or skyline.  Buyers in some markets are willing to pay more (sometimes much more) for favorable views.  The view could also consist of unfavorable external influences such as a junkyard or commercial properties.

External Obsolescence

When the external influence is negative, it is called external obsolescence.  External obsolescence (defined by Appraising Residential Properties Fourth Edition on pg. 279) “is an element of depreciation, a defect, usually, incurable caused by negative influences outside a site and generally incurable on the part of the owner, landlord, or tenant.”   So, for example, a location on a busy road or having a view of commercial properties could actually have a negative impact on the value of a residential property. 

EFFECTS ON VALUE

The question during an appraisal becomes how much do external influences affect the value of the property.  The answer is it depends. Not every market is the same.  A buyer looking for water frontage property in River Ranch, which is in the middle of Lafayette Parish, is probably willing to pay much more for a view of the river than someone in Vermilion Parish would be willing to pay. Therefore, the adjustment for a water view or location would be different in these areas.  External features affect specific markets differently. 

To determine how much an external factor has on the value of a property, the appraiser must study the market.  An appraiser will report how buyers and sellers in a specific market are reacting to certain features.  It is extremely important to know how the external factors influence the value of your property.  If a property is overpriced when it goes up for sale, you run the risk of scaring potential buyers off. If you price your home too low, then you risk not making your maximum profit on your home. 

CONSULT A PROFESSIONAL

External influences can significantly complex the valuation of your property.  It is important that you find a qualified expert to help solve your valuation needs.  At Duplechin Appraisals, we are trained to complete complex assignments in Lafayette Parish, as well as most of the Acadiana Parishes.  If we can be of assistance in the future, please reach out to us at 337.254.2215 or lduple4@gmail.com.  

Lafayette Increases its Number of College-Educated People

Although Lafayette is losing some of its local college graduates to out of state employers, the city is also attracting college graduates from other metropolitan areas in the state.

Check out the Acadiana Advocates article on this topic below: https://www.theadvocate.com/acadiana/news/business/article_d08198f8-42d9-11ea-9d6f-0b7fb5244e1e.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebookacadiana&utm_campaign=snd