Daily Trends in Lafayette Parish

Published 3/30/2020

  • New and pending listings are starting to decline
  • The number of canceled listings has increased slightly
  • The number of closed sales is stable; however, this is expected since it typically takes 30-45 days for a property to close after it has gone under contract

Covid-19 has caused a lot of disruptions in the Acadiana market area.  Lots of individuals have lost their jobs due to businesses having to temporarily shut their doors.  Other individuals who have not lost their job are being told to work from home.  Interest rates have been jumping up and down over the last couple of weeks, and the price of oil had dropped to its lowest price in two decades.  There is lots of uncertainty in the air.  With all of this going on, how has the real estate market been affected over the past 4-8 weeks? Let’s take a look at the daily trends over the last two months in Lafayette Parish.

With people losing their jobs, oil prices decreasing, interest rates fluctuating, and a global pandemic, what has been the effect on the single-family housing market area in Lafayette Parish?   Let’s look at the daily trends in Lafayette Parish in several charts that track new listings, closed sales, pending listings, withdrawn listings, and canceled listings over the last two months.  Two dates are highlighted in each chart, March 12th and March 23rd.  The date of 03/12/2020 is the day that most major sports put their seasons on hold.  In my opinion, this is the day where coverage of the coronavirus really took off. The next date, 03/23/2020, is the day that Governor Edwards announced that the state of Louisiana would have a stay in place order effective the next day at 5:00 pm.  The charts show the daily figures for the metrics below.

Daily New Listings:

The first chart shows the number of new listings on a daily basis for the last two months.

The chart is showing that there has been a slowdown in new listings.  The peak for new listings in the last two months was on 2/26/2020; however, there has been a downward trend since then.  In fact, over the past seven days, there have been only 49 new listings. This is a 36% decrease from the prior week of 76 new listings and a 47% decrease from the week before that of 92 new listings.  There is an obvious decline in new listings over the past week which is when the governor’s order was announced.

Daily Pending Listings:

The chart below shows the number of new pending listings on a daily basis for the last two months.

This chart shows an obvious decline in the number of pending listings as well.  In the weeks prior to the day when most of the major sporting events got suspended, there were several spikes in pending listings.  We have not seen spikes like those since the media coverage has increased for Covid-19.

Daily Withdrawn Listings:

The chart below shows the number of withdrawn listings on a daily basis for the last two months.

This metric has been relatively stable over this time period.  On 03/09/2020, there was a spike; however, this only amounted to three withdrawn listings in one day. 

Daily Canceled Listings:

The chart below shows the number of canceled listings on a daily basis for the last two months.

This chart shows a slight increase in canceled listings over this time period.  It is not a significant increase in canceled listings, but it is something that we need to keep an eye on.

Daily Closed Sales:

The chart below shows the number of closed sales on a daily basis for the last two months.

The chart is showing that there has not been much of a change in the number of closed sales over this time period, which is expected.  It takes approximately 30-45 days for a sale to close after it goes under contract.  So while we started to see an impact on the number of new listings, new pending listings, and canceled listings approximately 30 days ago, we probably won’t see a change in the number of closed sales for another week or two. 

Another metric that will be worth keeping an eye on in the future is the sales to list price ratio.  With fewer potential buyers out there due to people losing their jobs, oil prices dropping, and the uncertainty with the coronavirus, we need to watch to see how much properties are selling for versus what they were listed for.  This could be an indicator of a declining market if the ratio starts to decrease.

Conclusion:

I will continue to watch the daily trends in Lafayette Parish as time goes on.  With all that is happening, it would not be a big surprise to see things slow down even more.  It is still very early on, so it is important to keep a close watch to see which way the market is moving.  As time goes on and more data comes in, I will start observing the market on a weekly basis.  Most professionals in the Lafayette market area would have told you that the market was HOT 30 days ago.  Now, things have slowed down due to a number of different reasons.  I’m interested to hear what you have to say.  What are your thoughts on the Lafayette real estate market?  Realtors and Mortgage Lenders, have you seen a slowdown?  Buyers and sellers, are you more hesitant to take action right now? 

If you have any questions, please reach out to me at Lduple4@gmail.com

*A daily hot sheet was run in the Realtors Association of Acadiana Multiple Listings Search.  The daily hot sheet tracked the number of new listings, new pending listings, new withdrawn listings, new canceled listings, and closed sales on a daily basis from 01/27/2020 to 03/29/2020.

LAFAYETTE PARISH MARKET ANALYSIS UPDATE

LAFAYETTE PARISH MARKET ANALYSIS UPDATE

February 6, 2020:

An updated look at the Lafayette Parish Market indicates the market is still stable; however, slight changes are being observed.

Was January a busy month for you?  Based on the number of properties sold, it most likely was for Realtors and Lenders in the Lafayette Parish Market.  Sales in Lafayette Parish for the month of January are up BIG TIME from last year.  In fact, there were more sales in January 2020 than there have been in the month of January for the last 10 years. 

Last month, I took an in-depth look at the overall market trends for Lafayette Parish.  The overall market was considered stable; however, there were some favorable statistics.  This month continues the favorable trend.

  • The number of sales in January 2020 increased by 73% in comparison to January 2019.
  • The sales volume was 91% higher this January as compared to January 2019.
  • Year over year trends continues to see favorable changes.

If you’re interested in some of the details and data, take a look below.

Monthly Data for January:

The chart below shows how the market was performing for January 2019 vs. January 2020.  In this chart, the median sales price, average sales price, and average price per square foot all have favorable statistics.  The median and average sold price is actually indicating that sales prices increased by a significant amount this January as compared to last January.  Average prices can be affected by outliers such as a couple of $1 million+ properties, so the median sales price is often a better indicator. 

Monthly Data (January)

Year to Date Sales Volume (Jan 1 – Feb 6):

In the chart below, you can see 2020 has a much higher sales volume than in previous years.  In fact, sales volume is up 91% from last year.  For both 2019 and 2018, there was a decrease in sales volume from the previous year.  Interest rates could have something to do with this.  For November 2018, the 30-year interest rate was (4.94%) the highest that they had been since February 2011 (5.05%). Since then, there has been a steady decline in interest rates. In January 2020, interest rates were mostly between 3.50% and 3.75%.  This is making homes more affordable for consumers. 

Sales Volume (year to date)

The chart below shows the number of sales in the area. Again, in January 2020, there were more sales than in the previous 10 years for the month of January.  There was a 73% increase in the number of sales for 2020 as compared to 2019.  Again, this is a favorable indicator for the market area.

Number of Sales (year to date)

Trending 12 Months Sales Volume (Ending on 1/31/2020):

In last month’s market update, the trending 12 months statistics were all favorable.  The trend continues this month.  In fact, the median sales price, average sales price, and the average price per square foot are all up from last month’s analysis.  Although the analysis is indicating values are stable, the statistics continue to move in a favorable direction.  This is good for sellers who are trying to sell their homes because it is taking less time to sell their homes and the sales prices are increasing.

Rolling 12 month Trend

Conclusion:

So far it has been a strong start in the real estate market for 2020.  The trend is expected to continue in the near future.  At the end of January 2020, there were 307 pending properties in Lafayette Parish.  This is a 16.7% increase from January 2019 that had 263 pending properties.  With interest rates at a three year low, it is reasonable to expect this trend to continue for the first quarter of 2020.

If you have any appraisal related questions, please do not hesitate to contact me. 337-254-2215 or Lduple4@gmail.com

I hope everyone enjoys the Mardi Gras festivities over the next few weeks.  Until next month, laissez les bons temps rouler!!!

Data Source:  MLS, detached single-family homes sold in Lafayette Parish

LAFAYETTE PARISH MARKET UPDATE

LAFAYETTE PARISH MARKET UPDATE

January 12, 2020

An updated look at the Lafayette Parish market indicates the market is still stable; however, slight changes are being observed.

In November, I last took an in-depth look at the overall market trends for the Parish.  The overall market at that time was indicating relatively stable trends.  A couple of months later, we still see stability, but some metrics are indicating some minimal improvements.

  • Sales prices in December 2019 similar to those in December 2018, but the number of closed sales increased by 6% and the days on the market decreased by almost 11 days
  • Very minimal, but positive, movement in overall sale prices for the year of 2019 as compared to the year of 2018
  • During 2019, some pickup in sales prices for homes priced in the $300 thousands while other price ranges remained relatively the same
  • 2020 is showing a good start for the year.  Sales prices and the number of sales are up quite a bit as compared to what was seen in 2019.

December 2019:

The first chart shows how the market was performing for December 2018 vs. December 2019.  The median sales price rose by 4.7%, while the average sales price declined by 3.4%.  The statistics differ because the average is affected by outliers, while the median is not.  So, in this data set, the lower-priced outliers are affecting the average sales price. 

The number of closed sales and the days on the market have both had favorable changes.  The number of closed sales increased by almost 6% in December 2018.  The chart is showing that there was a negative change in the days on the market, the fewer days on the market the better in real estate. 

December 2019 statistics are mostly improved from December 2018 in Lafayette Parish

Year over Year:

The next chart shows the year over year trends for Lafayette Parish Market.  The market is still considered stable because the changes in the median sales price, average sales price, and average price per square foot all have minimal change. The change is not enough to classify the market as increasing.  Although most of the statistics are indicating a stable market, they are still moving in a favorable direction. 

The only statistic that is showing an unfavorable result is the months of housing supply.  The months of housing supply represents how long it will take to sell properties that are currently active.  The number of active listings is growing faster than the number of houses that are being sold.

Lafayette Parish Market Values are stable at this time.

Percentage of Sales by Price:

Below is an interesting chart that shows the percentage of sales by price range over the past few years. What stands out here is that the majority of properties that are being sold have a sales price from $100,000 to $300,000.  Also, properties that have sold from $300,000 to $1,000,000 have had an increasing portion of the market share in the past couple of years.  As you can see, the number of sales of $1,000,000+ homes is so small that it does not even register on the chart. 

Pie Chart

The pie chart below shows similar information as the chart above, but instead of showing the data as percentages, it shows the total number of sales in each price range for 2019. The largest price ranges are $100,000-$300,000 (75.04%). As you can see, the higher end price range takes up a small percentage of the total market.

Majority of properties have a sales price between $100k and $300k.
Approximately 75% of homes had a sales price between $100k to $300k.

Percentage of Sales by Age Range:

This next chart shows the percentage of homes in each age range. The age ranges are the ones used in  MLS.  What’s interesting here is that New Construction and 1 -3-year-old homes decreased from 2017 to 2019 in the Lafayette Parish Market.   New construction has slowed down slightly over this time, which is consistent with the number of permits pulled over this time period.  Although the percentage of sales decreased during this time period, they still take up the largest percentage of sales over this time.

New construction sales have slowed down over the past couple of years in Lafayette Parish.

Percentage of Sales by Square Foot:

This next chart shows the percentage of sales for homes grouped by the living area square footage.  As you can see from the chart, homes sold in Lafayette Parish are typically between 1,200 sqft and 2,000 sqft.  The chart also shows that after 1,600 sqft, the larger the living area of the home, the less of a percentage it takes up in the market place.  While there are plenty of homes that have over 2,800 square feet of living area, the number is minimal when compared to the rest of the market.  This is why the chart shows homes with 2,800 square feet as having 0.0% of the sales.

The majority of homes in Lafayette Parish Market have a living area between 1,200 sqft to 2,000 sqft.

2020 So Far…

The next chart is showing year to date sales.  Although there is a limited amount of time in this analysis because we just started the New Year, it is still interesting to look at.  Does anything stand out in the chart below?

I noticed a huge increase in the average sales price (62.9%), with only a 5.5% increase in the median sales price.  Could this be right?  Well looking at the data a little more closely, this year in Lafayette Parish there has been a sale for $1,408,486 and one for $2,900,000.  Last year the highest sales price in the first 8 days of the year was only $479,000.  This illustrates a little more clearly how outliers affect averages, while typically, they do not affect the median. 

The high sales have also affected the average price per square foot in 2019.  It shows that there has been a 23.4% increase in using this metric. 

Another positive factor is that the number of closed sales has continued to increase from this time last year, which was also true for the previous month. 

Lafayette Parish Market year to date statistics show that 2020 is off to a better start than 2019.

I hope that this analysis was informative for how the overall Lafayette Parish is performing. Hopefully, you have a more in-depth view of how the market is performing going into this New Year.   I would like to hear your thoughts about the Lafayette Parish Market.

Remember that this analysis includes all sales in Lafayette Parish Market.  If you are in the market to sell or purchase a home, it is important to look and see how your specific sub-market is performing.  If I can be of assistance to you in the future for any real estate appraisal needs, please do not hesitate to contact me at 337.254.2215 or Lduple4@gmail.com.

Data Source:  MLS, detached single-family homes sold in Lafayette Parish

What Affects Your Homes Value?

I’m sure you’ve heard the question, “What are the first three rules of real estate?”  The answer that many real estate professionals will tell you is “Location, Location, Location.”  While this may be true, when it comes to valuing your home, appraisers typically use comparable homes with similar locations.  When the comparables have similar locations, what else factors in to a home’s value and differentiates the value of one home from the next?

  • Living square footage:

Several factors come into play when valuing a home.  One of the most important features of your home that affects value is the living square footage. Basically, the more living square feet you have, the more your home is worth.  There are some instances where a home can be over-built and have too much square footage.  However, most of the time, the more square footage you have equals more value.

  • Renovations and updates:

Another factor that can increase the value of your home is updates.  Renovations can improve both the quality of your home and the condition of your home.  I have seen investors purchase old, outdated homes and completely renovate them.  Originally the homes would have linoleum and carpet flooring, wood paneling walls, formica counters, stock built cabinets, etc.  After renovations, the homes have wood and tile flooring, sheetrock walls, granite or quartz counters, custom cabinets, etc. So, the renovations not only improve the condition of the homes (new materials) but the quality of the homes too (higher end finishes). 

  • Other important factors:

Several other factors can affect the value of your homes: lot size, views, bedroom and bathroom counts, covered parking, amenities, etc. 

Ultimately, the local market decides what factors influence the value and by how much.  It is important to have the assistance of a local real estate professional to analyze the market and to determine which factors are/are not important in your market area.  If you are considering buying or selling a home and want a reliable opinion of value, contact me at 337-254-2215.

Lane Duplechin, AGA

Candidate for Designation with the Appraisal Institute

Home Values

One thing that I hear sellers say often is, the house down the street sold for “X”, therefore the value of my house is worth “X”, or something very close to “X”.  While this statement could hold some truth in a newer cookie cutter subdivision, it is almost never true in most other subdivisions.   Even in an older cookie cutter subdivision this statement most likely would not be true.  The condition of a house has a big affect on the value of a home.  Homes suffer different degrees of depreciation based on how a home owner maintains the home and the kind of updates that are made over the years.  What if the home down the street has been remodeled?  Instead of having the original tile or formica counters and tile and carpet flooring, maybe the owners updated the counters to granite, replaced the original floors with wood and new ceramic tile, and updated the bathrooms.  So if your home hasn’t had any updates, then it most likely would not have a similar value to the home down the street, assuming that all other features are the same.  Likewise, the house down the street may have been neglected and is in poor condition.  Do you still think your property is worth the same as the one down the street? Probably not!

In a more custom built subdivision, your property most likely has other differences from the house down the street.  Maybe your living square footage is significantly larger/smaller, the lot sizes could be much different, and/or the  quality of your home could be superior/ inferior to the house down the street.  Other differences include number of bedrooms and bathrooms, the type of covered parking (carport vs. garage), or the amenities that come with a property (covered patio/porch, fence, storage buildings, workshops, outdoor kitchen, pool, etc.)  The living square footage, often referred to as Gross Living Area (GLA), is one of the most important characteristics that affect value.  If the house down the street is 500 sf larger then yours, then this property might be worth a lot more than yours.  If your property has a much smaller lot size than the property down the street, wouldn’t you think that your property is worth less?  All of these property characteristics could play a role in the value of your home.  They need to be analyzed by a professional to determine what kind of effect on value they have.

The truth is, is that every property is different and every market is different.  If you are thinking of listing your property for sale, it is important that all of the relevant characteristics of your property are analyzed by an expert in your market.  A certified appraiser has the training, education, and experience necessary to provide you with an accurate value of your home, which gives you a valuable tool in listing your property and in your negotiating efforts once the property is under contract.

Real Estate Expert

The real estate market is constantly changing. There are some sub markets in the Lafayette area that have declined in the last few years, while others have remained stable. If you are thinking about listing your property for sale, it is important to know how your market is performing to know the true value of your home. You should hire a qualified real estate appraiser to assist you in determining your home’s value. I’d be happy to assist you in your valuation needs.