•The market is rebounding after the initial slow down
•The number of new pending sales is similar to pre-pandemic numbers
•New closed sales are still down, but this should change in the weeks to come
•The median sales price is improving year over year
•Year to date, we have more sales than this time last year
Published 3/30/2020
Covid-19 has caused a lot of disruptions in the Acadiana market area. Lots of individuals have lost their jobs due to businesses having to temporarily shut their doors. Other individuals who have not lost their job are being told to work from home. Interest rates have been jumping up and down over the last couple of weeks, and the price of oil had dropped to its lowest price in two decades. There is lots of uncertainty in the air. With all of this going on, how has the real estate market been affected over the past 4-8 weeks? Let’s take a look at the daily trends over the last two months in Lafayette Parish.
With people losing their jobs, oil prices decreasing, interest rates fluctuating, and a global pandemic, what has been the effect on the single-family housing market area in Lafayette Parish? Let’s look at the daily trends in Lafayette Parish in several charts that track new listings, closed sales, pending listings, withdrawn listings, and canceled listings over the last two months. Two dates are highlighted in each chart, March 12th and March 23rd. The date of 03/12/2020 is the day that most major sports put their seasons on hold. In my opinion, this is the day where coverage of the coronavirus really took off. The next date, 03/23/2020, is the day that Governor Edwards announced that the state of Louisiana would have a stay in place order effective the next day at 5:00 pm. The charts show the daily figures for the metrics below.
The first chart shows the number of new listings on a daily basis for the last two months.
The chart is showing that there has been a slowdown in new listings. The peak for new listings in the last two months was on 2/26/2020; however, there has been a downward trend since then. In fact, over the past seven days, there have been only 49 new listings. This is a 36% decrease from the prior week of 76 new listings and a 47% decrease from the week before that of 92 new listings. There is an obvious decline in new listings over the past week which is when the governor’s order was announced.
The chart below shows the number of new pending listings on a daily basis for the last two months.
This chart shows an obvious decline in the number of pending listings as well. In the weeks prior to the day when most of the major sporting events got suspended, there were several spikes in pending listings. We have not seen spikes like those since the media coverage has increased for Covid-19.
The chart below shows the number of withdrawn listings on a daily basis for the last two months.
This metric has been relatively stable over this time period. On 03/09/2020, there was a spike; however, this only amounted to three withdrawn listings in one day.
The chart below shows the number of canceled listings on a daily basis for the last two months.
This chart shows a slight increase in canceled listings over this time period. It is not a significant increase in canceled listings, but it is something that we need to keep an eye on.
The chart below shows the number of closed sales on a daily basis for the last two months.
The chart is showing that there has not been much of a change in the number of closed sales over this time period, which is expected. It takes approximately 30-45 days for a sale to close after it goes under contract. So while we started to see an impact on the number of new listings, new pending listings, and canceled listings approximately 30 days ago, we probably won’t see a change in the number of closed sales for another week or two.
Another metric that will be worth keeping an eye on in the future is the sales to list price ratio. With fewer potential buyers out there due to people losing their jobs, oil prices dropping, and the uncertainty with the coronavirus, we need to watch to see how much properties are selling for versus what they were listed for. This could be an indicator of a declining market if the ratio starts to decrease.
I will continue to watch the daily trends in Lafayette Parish as time goes on. With all that is happening, it would not be a big surprise to see things slow down even more. It is still very early on, so it is important to keep a close watch to see which way the market is moving. As time goes on and more data comes in, I will start observing the market on a weekly basis. Most professionals in the Lafayette market area would have told you that the market was HOT 30 days ago. Now, things have slowed down due to a number of different reasons. I’m interested to hear what you have to say. What are your thoughts on the Lafayette real estate market? Realtors and Mortgage Lenders, have you seen a slowdown? Buyers and sellers, are you more hesitant to take action right now?
If you have any questions, please reach out to me at Lduple4@gmail.com
*A daily hot sheet was run in the Realtors Association of Acadiana Multiple Listings Search. The daily hot sheet tracked the number of new listings, new pending listings, new withdrawn listings, new canceled listings, and closed sales on a daily basis from 01/27/2020 to 03/29/2020.