Here is my monthly Lafayette market analysis update for October 2019. The purpose of this article is to describe how the overall Lafayette Parish real estate market is performing.
When I am working on an appraisal, I typically do a thorough
market analysis for each market segment on every property. This analysis represents how competitive
sales in the market are performing over time.
However, it is also necessary to know how the larger market is
performing. The larger market that I am
referring to is the Parish that each property is located in. For
this article, I will analyze sales for Lafayette Parish. The data analyzed is strictly from the
Realtors Association of Acadiana Multiple Listing Service (RAA-MLS). Most “For Sale By Owner” Sales or Sheriff
Sales are not included in the analysis.
I have sought out the advice from other appraisers locally and nationally to develop the charts and graphs for the Lafayette market analysis in this report. For the analysis, a series of charts and graphs are included with a brief explanation.
Year over Year
The chart above shows the year over year statistics for
several metrics. There is a subtle
change in the metrics used in this chart.
The median sales price is indicating less than a 1% decrease in prices,
while the average sales price has increased by 1%. Additionally, the average price per square
foot has only decreased by 0.1%. I
typically do not classify the market as changing, whether that be increasing or
decreasing, unless the change is more than 3%.
The reason that I have a margin of error of 3% is that each buyer and
seller has slightly different motivations in each transaction. A house could be listed for sale for
$200,000. One buyer may be willing to
pay full price for the house, while the next buyer may only pay $195,000. Each willing participant has their own
motivation; therefore, I only determine the market as increasing or decreasing
after the change is greater than 3%.
The months of
housing supply has also increased over this time period by 10.2%. This is primarily because the active number
of listings has been steadily increasing, as will be shown later. Also, the number of closed sales and the
absorption rate has increased by 21.2%.
This is a positive factor in the market because it shows that more homes
have been purchased. Lastly, the days on
market has increased slightly, but only be 2.2%, or two days.
Year to Date
The chart above is similar to the year over year chart;
however, it is showing the statistics for the year to date sales. So, it is showing the statistics for each
year as of January 1 until the end of October.
As you can see, the year to date statistics is very similar to the year
over year statistics. Most of the metrics
are within the 3% margin of error; therefore, the metrics are indicating that
property values in Lafayette Parish are stable.
One area where change is occurring is in the months of supply. Last year
there were 3.88 months of supply, while this year, there is 4.28 months of
supply. This is a 10.2% increase. As you will see later on, this is due to the
rising number of active listings in the market over the past few years.
This chart is showing a comparison between sales from
October 2018 versus October 2019. The median sales price and the average
sales price are in sync with the
year over year statistics. However, the
average price per square foot has changed by 2.2%. While this is still within the 3% margin of
error, it is more change than in the year over year statistics. It is worth keeping an eye on in the coming
months to see if it continually increases.
above tracts the median sales prices and the average sales prices in
Lafayette during the month of October over the past few years. As you can see,
the median sales price has declined
over the past two years, while the average sales price has gone up. The average sales price could be affected by
higher-end homes in the area that is driving the average price up. The median sales price is less affected by
extremely high or low sales; therefore, it is different from the average sales
The chart above shows a scatter plot for all sales in
Lafayette Parish over the past four years.
The y-axis has been decreased to only show the sales under $1,000,000 to
show the trend line better. The trend
line shows a very slight uptick
in values. However, the change is very
small, and it is essentially flat. Lafayette
Parish sales have been stable for several years now.
The chart above trends the median sales price, the average
sales price, and the average price per square foot over time. This graph confirms the previous charts and
graphs that values are mostly stable over time.
There is, however, a recent uptick over the past 6 months. I will continue to analyze this over the
coming months to see if values continue to rise or if they stay in line with
the historical ranges.
The chart above shows the number of active listings, sold
listings, and months of inventory over time.
The blue line represents the active listings, which has been steadily
increasing over the last three years.
Because of this increase, the months of inventory (as shown in the year
over year statistics) has also increased.
The number of sold properties has been fairly stable for the past eight
months. The chart shows that there was a
slow down last year, starting around August and lasting until March. This is when interest rates rose. They have since gone down, and the number of
sales has increased since. Although this
chart does not show the months of inventory too well, the one below shows how
the months of housing supply has changed over time. Currently, there are slightly over 4 months
of inventory. As you can see, during
winter months over the past two years, the months of inventory has risen due to
less activity in the market.
Based on the metrics included in this analysis, values are
stable in Lafayette Parish. There is
some change, as is expected in real estate; however, the change is within a 3%
margin of error. Recently, there has
been an uptick in sales prices, but active listings also continue to
increase. It will be interesting to see
how prices continue to change in the future.
Next time I hope to include additional graphs to give more insight into how the market is performing. Again, this market analysis is showing all properties in Lafayette Parish. It is important to know how your specific market segment is performing when you are considering purchasing or selling a home. If I can be of assistance to you in the future, please do not hesitate to contact me (c. 337.254.2215, email: Lduple4@gmail.com)
I hope that this was insightful, and I look forward to the next Lafayette market analysis update in December. If you are interested in other articles that I have written, you can check them out at www.acadianaappraisals.com or on my Linkedin page.
Determining the living area of a home can be somewhat challenging in real estate. Currently, there is not one nationally-recognized standard for measurement that every appraiser must follow. This can create challenges when measuring a home to list for sale, or when measuring for the appraisal after the home has a contract on it. While there is not a single set of rules that every appraiser must follow, one standard that is widely known and used is the American National Standard Institute (ANSI). Additionally, Fannie Mae and FHA each have specific guidelines that appraisers are required to follow for loans that go through those agencies.
While there is no one standard that appraisers must follow when it comes to measuring single-family homes, there is one standard that is well know; the American National Institute (ANSI).
has several guidelines for what is considered living area and what is not. One area that these guidelines cover is
ceiling height, which often creates confusion when it comes to calculating
gross living area. ANSI says that any
part of a room that has less than 5 feet from the floor to the ceiling is NOT
included in the living area. It also
says that for a room to be included in the gross living area, at least half of
the space in the room must have a ceiling height of at least 7 feet. This is important when measuring homes that have
a second or third level. There are
instances where the ceiling can be sloped in some areas with a height of less
than 5 feet. It is important that the
correct measurements are taken so that an accurate gross living area can be
calculated. Ceiling height can also be
an issue in A-frame houses. Since the
exterior walls have a slope all the way (or almost all the way) to the ground
level, appraisers must be careful when measuring A-frame homes.
following is an illustration from the ANSI standards to help clarify which
areas can be included in the GLA. (Figure 4 from The American National Standard
For Single-Family Residential Buildings)
Another area that ANSI guidelines covers is the
stairway. ANSI says that, “the area of
both stair treads and landings proceeding to the floor below is included in the
finished area of the floor from which the stairs descend, not to exceed the
area of the opening in the floor.” This
means that if you have a home with a second level, the stairs are included in
the gross living area of the second floor as long as the area of the stairs does
not exceed the opening above. ANSI also
goes on to say that, “areas beneath stairs are included in the finished square
footage regardless of the distance between the stairs and the floor below or of the degree of finish of that
area.” Although the area beneath the
stairs may be less than five feet, ANSI says that it is included in the square
footage of the space below the stairs.
a loan is insured by FHA, appraisers must comply with their standards. One of these standards specifies how living
area is measured. According to the FHA
guidelines, the gross living area (GLA) is defined as “the total area of finished,
above-grade residential space calculated by measuring the outside perimeter of
the structure. It includes only finished, habitable, above-grade living
space.” FHA also says that the appraiser
identify non-contiguous living area and analyze its
effect on functional utility;
ensure that finished basements and unfinished attic areas
are not included in the total GLA; and
use the same measurement techniques for the subject and
comparable sales, and report the building dimensions in a consistent manner.
to FHA, it is important that only above-grade finished areas are included in
the GLA. Also, finished areas not
accessible directly from the main dwelling are not to be included in the GLA;
i.e., a bonus room above the garage that can only be accessed through the garage. While basements are not typically part of
homes in South Louisiana, it is important for appraisers in other areas of the
country to be aware of this guideline.
also talks about “Additions and Converted Spaces.” For additions or converted space to be
considered living area, it must be:
accessible from the interior of the main dwelling in a
has a permanent and sufficient heat source; and
was built in keeping with the design, appeal, and quality
of construction of the main dwelling.
is important that the addition or conversion meet all three requirements. If any one requirement is missing, then it is
not considered part of the living area.
For example, an attic above a garage that is finished as the rest of the
dwelling is not part of the gross living area if you must walk through the
garage to access the conversion. For
these such additions or conversions that do not meet the criteria, the
appraiser must analyze the effects of the area and account for it in the
Mae also has their own guidelines on what constitutes living area. Their guidelines state that when calculating
living area, appraisers must use exterior building measurements per floor for
above-grade areas. They also state that
living area includes only finished areas that are above grade. Areas that are finished, but not included as
living area, must be considered by the appraiser by analyzing the market to
determine its effect on value.
In addition to these
guidelines, there are many more rules for calculating the living square footage
of residential properties. To get the most
accurate measurement of your home, be sure to contact a qualified appraiser who
is knowledgeable of the rules and guidelines that must be followed. If I can assist you in your measurements, you
can contact me by email at Lduple4@gmail.com
or on my phone at 337.254.2215.